William & Mary

Conference:	CAA
Expected RPI:	94.0
Current RPI:	94
Expected SOS:	105
Current SOS:	105
Current Record:	17-12
Expected Record:	17-12
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-2
Current OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC Record:	5-4
Expected OOC RPI:	31
Expected OOC SOS:	27

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-12	94.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for William & Mary.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	High Point (273.0)	BSth	A	100-66	L	0%
11-15	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	H	83-76	W	100%
11-18	UCF (84.0)	Amer	A	75-64	L	0%
11-25	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	79-77	W	100%
11-29	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	114-104	W	100%
12-2	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	A	85-108	W	100%
12-6	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	70-77	W	100%
12-9	Ohio St. (20.0)	B10	A	97-62	L	0%
12-22	TCU (26.0)	B12	A	86-75	L	0%
12-30	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	H	90-87	W	100%
1-2	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	76-84	W	100%
1-5	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	A	65-90	W	100%
1-7	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	A	63-85	W	100%
1-11	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	H	89-82	W	100%
1-13	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	73-99	L	0%
1-18	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	70-90	L	0%
1-20	Elon (205.0)	CAA	A	73-80	W	100%
1-25	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	96-82	L	0%
1-27	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	A	81-84	W	100%
2-1	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	99-92	W	100%
2-3	Drexel (242.0)	CAA	H	79-91	L	0%
2-8	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	A	82-77	L	0%
2-10	Delaware (233.0)	CAA	H	83-66	W	100%
2-15	Hofstra (121.0)	CAA	A	90-84	L	0%
2-17	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	A	69-67	L	0%
2-22	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	H	96-83	W	100%
2-24	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	H	114-104	W	100%
3-4	Towson (153.0)	CAA	N	80-66	W	100%
3-5	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	N	83-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

William & Mary's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

William & Mary's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against William & Mary.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
William & Mary	CAA	26.54	26.54	61.83	61.83	6.28	6.28
College of Charleston	CAA	6.27	6.27	78.57	78.57	3.58	3.58
Towson	CAA	6.15	6.15	51.85	51.85	0.23	0.23
Northeastern	CAA	4.69	4.69	66.67	66.67	1.56	1.56
Drexel	CAA	4.60	4.60	36.67	36.67	-1.23	-1.23
Delaware	CAA	4.57	4.57	41.38	41.38	-0.79	-0.79
UNC Wilmington	CAA	4.57	4.57	32.14	32.14	-1.63	-1.63
James Madison	CAA	4.57	4.57	31.03	31.03	-1.73	-1.73
Hofstra	CAA	4.51	4.51	60.71	60.71	0.97	0.97
Elon	CAA	4.51	4.51	42.86	42.86	-0.64	-0.64
Old Dominion	CUSA	1.92	1.92	80.65	80.65	1.18	1.18
High Point	BSth	1.81	1.81	38.46	38.46	-0.42	-0.42
Hampton	MEAC	1.78	1.78	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
George Mason	A10	1.78	1.78	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.78	1.78	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Marshall	CUSA	1.78	1.78	71.88	71.88	0.78	0.78
Ohio St.	B10	1.78	1.78	74.19	74.19	0.86	0.86
TCU	B12	1.72	1.72	64.52	64.52	0.50	0.50
UCF	Amer	1.72	1.72	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Charlotte	CUSA	0.28	0.28	17.86	17.86	-0.18	-0.18
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.22	0.22	26.67	26.67	-0.10	-0.10
Radford	BSth	0.20	0.20	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
FIU	CUSA	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Richmond	A10	0.19	0.19	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.17	0.17	77.42	77.42	0.09	0.09
Furman	SC	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Rider	MAAC	0.17	0.17	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.17	0.17	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
La Salle	A10	0.17	0.17	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.17	0.17	51.61	51.61	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Longwood	BSth	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Manhattan	MAAC	0.14	0.14	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Siena	MAAC	0.14	0.14	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Loyola MD	Pat	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.07	-0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.12	0.12	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.12	0.12	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.12	0.12	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Western Carolina	SC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.10	-0.10
Boston University	Pat	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.11	0.11	31.25	31.25	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Penn St.	B10	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
UMBC	AE	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Clemson	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Indiana St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.06	-0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.08	0.08	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Stanford	P12	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.08	0.08	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
LSU	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.06	0.06	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01